Trend Analyzer Component

Question:
Is there a way to have my dashboard graph to display a trend line based on a series of 12 months of values? 

Answer:
There is a new and wonderful component in XCelsius 2008 called the Trend Analyzer.  The input is the series of numbers and the output is a trend line.  Give it 12 values, it can return any number of values along that line – typically the same number of values; in this case, 12.  You can even take this further and forecast future values based upon the trend line by using simple formulas.  And, since not all trends follow a linear pattern, you can even specify a different trend type, such as polynomial.  Further, for those statistical types who want to know how well the values match the trend, you can return an R-squared value and an F factor.

Trend Analyzer Component
Here’s a look at a trend line in action.

On this combo chart, the trend line reveals that the results are trending down.  For absenteeism, this is a good thing.  We also appear to be below our goal.  But what if we were above our goal and wanted to figure out when we would be at our goal?  Or what if we wanted to find out what our result would be 12 months from now?

These and other questions can be answered because the Trend Analyzer actually returns values.

When Will We Meet Our Goal?
Because values are returned by the trend analyzer, this question can be answered with an index or a lookup across the values to determine when it equals the goal. 

What Will It Be Next Year End If We Continue On This Trend?
If I take two of those values, I can calculate my slope using the difference of the rise over the run.  Take the first value and I get my b value (or where the line crosses the y axis).  Now I’ve got my linear equation y=mx+b (where m is the slope).  To complete the second question,  I plug in the number of months (24) as the x value and, from the equation, solve for y.  I chose 24 because I started with 12 months of data and am looking for the result 12 months from now – so 24 months from the first data point.

This result can then be displayed in a variety of ways – text box, spreadsheet – you name it!